Tracking Tropical Depression Cristobal

Weather Headlines

Monday 10 PM Update:

Monday 6 PM Update:

Monday 5 PM Update:

Monday 4 PM Update:

Monday Noon Update:

Monday, 10 AM Update

The 10 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps Cristobal as a Tropical Depression (maximum sustained winds below 39 mph) with a maximum sustained wind of 35 mph. There will continue to be wind gusts up to 45 mph with this storm. The tropical system has increased in forward motion, now moving northwest at 15 mph.

Heavy rain will be the biggest issue Arkansas will face Monday through Tuesday morning.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday.






Sunday, 7 PM Update

LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- Sunday 7 PM Update– Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall along the Louisiana coastline around 5 PM this evening. As of this article, it is slowly moving north a 5 mph but overnight it will begin to take a NNW turn and pick up speed. Cristobal will begin to impact Arkansas by Monday morning.

The only change to the forecast this evening regards the narrowing of the forecast cone where the core could track over Arkansas. Confidence is high that the core of Cristobal will move over eastern areas of the state as it weakens from a tropical storm into a depression. Regardless of its weakening, rainfall, wind, and even a few brief tornadoes will still be possible.

Rainfall wise, the heaviest axis will likely remain over eastern Arkansas where abouts from 2 to 4 inches will be possible with isolated amounts exceeds the higher end of that range.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for almost the entirety of the state, minus far south, southwest and west Arkansas. It will last through Tuesday morning.

As mentioned above wind and a few brief tornadoes will be possible as well. Cristobal will still remain strong enough to allow for non-thunderstorm wind gusts to reach near 45 mph at times. With the soils saturated across the E 1/2 of the state, it could be just enough wind for power outages to be numerous.

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for much of east and parts of central Arkansas lasting from 7 a.m. CDT Monday until 7 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Winds may be sustained at 15-25 mph, but gusts could get upwards of 45 mph.

A couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the rotation that will already exist with this tropical system. The threat is not all that high for this but something that will need to be watched on Monday night into Tuesday morning across areas of far eastern Arkansas.

The Arkansas Storm Team is watching this system for you and will keep you updated of any changes. To watch an in-depth forecast video regarding Cristobal and Arkansas weather, check out kark.com/weather.

Sunday 3 PM Update

Tropical Storm Cristobal is still moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico waters and remaining on track with it forecast to make landfall along the Louisiana coastline late this afternoon/early evening.

The only change to the forecast this afternoon regards the narrowing of the forecast cone where the core could track over Arkansas. Confidence is high that the core of Cristobal will move over central areas of the state as it weakens from a tropical storm into a depression. Regardless of its weakening, rainfall, wind, and even a few brief tornadoes will still be possible.

Rainfall wise, the heaviest axis will likely remain over eastern Arkansas where abouts from 2 to 4 inches will be possible with isolated amounts exceeds the higher end of that range.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for almost the entirety of the state, minus far south, southwest and west Arkansas. It will last through Tuesday morning.

As mentioned above wind and a few brief tornadoes will be possible as well. Cristobal will still remain strong enough to allow for non-thunderstorm wind gusts to reach near 50 mph at times. With the soils saturated across the E 1/2 of the state, it could be just enough wind for power outages to be numerous.

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for much of east and parts of central Arkansas lasting from 7 a.m. CDT Monday until 7 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Winds may be sustained at 15-25 mph, but gusts could get upwards of 45 mph.

A couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the rotation that will already exist with this tropical system. The threat is not all that high for this but something that will need to be watch on Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The Arkansas Storm Team is watching this system for you and will keep you updated of any changes. To watch an in-depth forecast video regarding Cristobal and Arkansas weather, check out kark.com/weather.

Saturday, 10 AM Update

Overnight, Cristobal strengthened back to tropical storm status. As of this article update Cristobal is moving over the central section of the Gulf of Mexico.

As it continues to move north it is struggling to maintain good organization so it is only most active on the eastern side of the core.

Concerning Arkansas, the path continues to hold with the core moving right over Arkansas. The latest data has really come into good agreement with the timing of when it will impact us.

Rainfall activity will increase from south to north on Monday beginning in the mid-morning hours. At this point, Cristobal will be weakening from a tropical storm to a depression. To us, that won’t mean much as rainfall will still occur no matter what. Cristobal will continue to move north through Arkansas and depart the state by Tuesday morning. In all, it should be in and out of the state within 24 hours.

The heaviest rain axis now appears to be settling in on the eastern half of the state where amounts could range from two to four inches. Some isolated amounts will exceed four inches. As you move west through the state, rainfall amounts will drop off quickly. Some places in far western Arkansas will register less than an inch.

Flooding may become a concern for some areas of eastern Arkansas. A flash flood watch may get issued by Sunday for that part of the state. This system will be fast-moving so that should reduce more of a widespread problem but isolated flooding will still be possible.

Due to the rotational features of a tropical system, there will also be a severe component on Monday mainly for areas of eastern Arkansas where a couple of brief tornadoes will be possible.

Friday 10 AM Update

Cristobal is still a depression located over the Yucatan Peninsula at this time but later this evening it will begin the journey north over the Gulf of Mexico. Based on the latest data and the track from the National Hurricane Center, Cristobal will re-strengthen back to a tropical storm and will make landfall as one Sunday evening along the Louisiana Coastline.

On Monday and lasting through Tuesday, we are still expecting Cristobal as it weakens over land, to have an impact on Arkansas weather. From the image above there is still some uncertainty with regards to exactly where the core will travel.

Because of this, multiple scenarios are still possible for Arkansas weather. Over the weekend, we will get a much better idea on the path Cristobal will take as it moves inland. Based on past events and current forecast data, we do feel the core will probably move right over the central section of the state. If that occurs, high rain totals will exist over the eastern half of Arkansas. There would be some severe threat as well with a tornado or two possible. Again, it’s not set in stone. A ridge of high pressure to our north on Monday will play a big role in how Cristobal will track.

Thursday 10 AM Update

The mid-morning update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Cristobal has weakened as forecast to a tropical depression while it still churns over the Yucatan Peninsula. This will be temporary as it is forecast to strengthen back to tropical storm status Friday night.

Other than this update to its status, the track at the end of the 5-day range has shifted slightly east as well. This could place Arkansas on the lower rainfall side of things but it is still a little too early for high confidence in this solution just yet.

Read the 7 AM update below for additional details.

Thursday 7 AM Update

Tropical Storm Cristobal is still on track to threaten the Northern Gulf Coast late this weekend with heavy rain potential for Arkansas on Monday and Tuesday.

Based on the 7 AM update from the National Hurricane Center, there is not much change to the overall forecast track for Cristobal. It is still expected to wobble around the Yucatan Peninsula through Friday evening before speeding up and moving more northward into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

As it moves towards the U.S. over the weekend, it is forecast to strengthen some but due to the weather pattern that will be in the area, it is not expected to increase to hurricane status. Regardless, it will still bring a lot of rain to parts of the Gulf Coast states.

Beyond the 5-day forecast track that you see above, there has been some increase in the confidence of how it will continue to move north but not enough to put more weight on the still two possible scenarios (see from Wednesday update below) we could have for Arkansas. The latest data is suggesting that the core of Cristobal will move through Central Arkansas. This would still allow for a decent bit of rain to fall around the core and over eastern Arkansas.

We are continuing to monitor this fluid forecast and will keep you updated with the latest.

Wednesday Update

Since the last weekend of May, we’ve been keeping an eye on a disturbance over the Bay of Campeche off the Yucatan Peninsula. A few days later, this disturbance finally organized and strengthened into a tropical storm and was given the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane list, Cristobal.

Looking ahead to the next couple of days, Cristobal will be wobbling near the Yucatan Peninsula due to there not being sufficient weather pattern support to move it.

By this weekend, there will be support for it to begin making a northward track towards the United States coastline.

Based on the latest forecast guidance, as shown above, Cristobal could make landfall as far west as southeast Texas or as far east as the coast of Mississippi as a tropical storm sometime Sunday night. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, that is when impacts would be felt from Cristobal in Arkansas. Until then, our weekend weather will remain hot, humid, and mostly dry.

Regardless of where it makes landfall within that range mentioned above, it will impact Arkansas but the amount of impact will vary on where the core of the system tracks:

Scenario 1: If the core makes landfall more west and places Arkansas mainly on the east side of the core, we will have more impacts (higher rain totals, severe weather potential higher) from the system.

Scenario 2: If the core makes landfall more east and Arkansas resides mainly on the west side of the core, impacts will be far less (low rainfall amounts, severe weather threat very low). This is what we will be watching very closely because those are two distinct forecasts we could have in the coming days.

As of Wednesday, forecast guidance has held pretty solid with Cristobal tracking north towards Lousiana. Beyond Monday morning, there are still some uncertanties on how it tracks due to another feature over the United States that will impact Cristobal’s movement. Timing will be key.

Right now, our thinking is that the core moves over the western half of Arkansas. If this holds out, rainfall amounts over a two-day span could range from 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.

This forecast is still evolving and will be adjusted as new data comes in and confidence increases on path for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

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