LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Saturday Evening Update – We are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system kicking out of the Desert Southwest and moving over the southern states including Arkansas. A significant severe weather setup looks likely on Sunday for much of the south.
While severe weather is possible across much of the state, The Storm Prediction Center did upgrade portions of southeast Arkansas to a moderate risk (dark orange/red).
This evening, the main risk area looks to stay well to the southwest of Arkansas. As storms drift into southwest Arkansas, they may still pose a strong/severe storm status. The overall risk will be low. Hail is the main concern.
By Easter Sunday, that focus changes as the low-pressure system begins to show more qualities of being able to produce severe weather. Although details have become more clear about this system in the past 24 hours, there are still aspects of the low’s track and Sunday morning storm activity that create a few uncertainties some of which would be a good thing.
The video above is from a model that tries to resolve rain and thunderstorm activity. This model should be used as a tool and not be interpreted as exactly what radar will look like at the given time shown.
There look to be THREE waves of showers and thunderstorms that will move over Arkansas which could pose a strong/severe risk. Once the first wave gets going, we will have a better fix on timing.
Areas along and East of I-30 and South of I-40 from Little Rock from Memphis have the greatest risk for severe weather.
TIMING: This is tonight into the early pre-dawn hours of Sunday.
THREATS: Hail is the main concern. Mostly 1” or less in diameter
TIMING: 7 AM- 3 PM
THREATS: Isolated thunderstorms and eventually a cluster of storms will be moving into Arkansas from the SSW.
Initially, these thunderstorms will pose a hail and wind threat. Around 10 AM as the warm front begins to lift into the state, the tornado threat increases. Again, SE Arkansas has the highest probability for tornado potential.
TIMING: 3 PM- 9 PM
THREATS: The core of the low begins to move through the state. Hail will be the main threat. Areas in north Arkansas will have the threat to see hail as well. A tornado threat will exist but be slightly lower.
Once again, we are watching this very closely. Be sure to check back to this article for additional updates. Until then, watch the latest web forecast video HERE.