Parts of Arkansas could see their first freeze of the season next weekend

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It’s no secret that this fall has been warm. In the month of September, 23 out of the 30 days were warmer than normal. October has been warm too. So far this month there have only been 4 days with below-average temperatures.

October 2021 temperatures.

This is about to change. The forecast for this Halloween weekend will be slightly cooler than normal, and it looks like the cooler temperatures will last into next week. Click here for the 7-day forecast.

This weekend will be cooler than average, but not cold enough for a freeze. Long-term forecast models are pointing toward our first freeze to occur not this weekend, but next weekend (11/6 – 11/7). A low-pressure system will sweep through the mid-south late next week. Once the low is to our east, we will see a strong area of high pressure centered over Arkansas next weekend. A strong area of high pressure is exactly what we need this time of the year to get a frost or a freeze. The European (EURO) model has temperatures dropping below freezing the morning of Saturday 11/6.

EURO forecast temperatures Saturday 11/6 at 7 AM

But, there is some disagreement between models. The American (GFS) model has the rain for the middle of next week and the area of high pressure like the European model, but it keeps more clouds around. When we have clouds at night they act as a blanket and don’t allow temperatures to cool as much. With that cloud cover, the American model has our temperatures staying in the 40s and 50s.

GFS forecast temperatures Saturday 11/6 at 7 AM

Let’s just say the European model is right, and Little Rock drops to 31° the morning of 11/6. Is this earlier or later than average?

Below are the dates for the average first freeze of the season. For the most part, the further north the earlier the first freeze will be.

First freeze dates using an average of all the years between 1991 and 2020.

Well, is 11/6 earlier or later than normal?

Looking at the chart you can see it depends on where you are. For the cities in northern Arkansas, it will fall slightly later than normal. For Little Rock, it will be several days earlier than normal.

Looking at the big picture, early November is when Arkansas should see the first freezing temperatures of the cold season.

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