Our first true cold front of the season will bring much cooler air to Arkansas by this weekend. But first, it’ll bring some much-needed rainfall. Unfortunately, this rain could be excessive in spots.

Over the past 24 hours, forecast models have increased the amount of rainfall expected. Our two most commonly used models suggest 1 to 4 inches of rain could fall across much of western Arkansas while the eastern half of the state picks up less than an inch.

While these two models are probably the most accurate, it should be noted that there is an outlier model that suggests that isolated locations could pick up far more rainfall than shown above. Our GRAF model output is suggesting that storms re-generate in the same locations for a long period of time on Wednesday, resulting in 5 to 10 inches of rain in spots.

While this outcome is less likely, it should not be ignored. Sure, we need rain. But this amount of rainfall in a short amount of time could result in significant flash flooding. For this reason, much of central and western Arkansas have been highlighted in a low risk for flash flooding on Wednesday.

Some additional rainfall is expected to linger into Thursday, though it appears rainfall amounts will be lighter.

If we can get through this rain without any issues while also picking up some beneficial moisture, we’ll be in great shape. Our cold front will pass on Thursday, clearing us out and cooling us off into the weekend. By then, highs will likely be in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Enjoy!

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