LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Yes, there is a chance. But there is also a chance of rain. What we do know is this: a decent-sized storm system will bring quite a bit of moisture to Arkansas next week. We’re talking about Tuesday afternoon and evening, perhaps into Wednesday morning.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about this storm. So if you’re asking, “What about my town?” That all depends on where the center of low pressure goes. This is what drives the entire system. And right now, we just don’t know for sure.

We do have plenty of clues, though. And we get more information every day. At this point, short-term forecast models are not able to pick up on the system. But we can turn to our two main long-term models: The Euro (European forecast model) and GFS (American forecast model).

The Euro appears to favor more snow. Why? Because it takes the track of our low farther south, over Louisiana and Mississippi. This would bring colder temperatures into Arkansas, as well as deeper moisture since the “low” would be closer to the Gulf of Mexico.

Euro favors more snow and some rain as of Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the GFS model brings the low directly over Arkansas. This would likely mean warmer temperatures and somewhat less moisture. Still, some snow will be possible. But it would likely be limited.

GFS favors less snow, and more rain as of Friday afternoon.

Dry air could also be a curve ball. Models often struggle to pick up on this, especially long-term models. But a dry slot can often shove into the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the southwest, shutting down the snow as quickly as it gets started. The Euro and GFS both struggle to pick up on this. But if you look closely, they both paint some variety of a dry slot. So we must watch that.

We know you want a more detailed answer. But perhaps this gives you a better idea of what could happen.

In a nutshell, we believe the highest elevations of the Ozarks and Boston mountains have the best chance for significant snowfall. The Ouachitas may also get a fair dose.

Rain is most likely for southeast Arkansas. But for those in central Arkansas and the River Valley, there could be a mix involved. Either way, at least plan for a cold rain with the possibility of more impacts.

The Arkansas Storm Team will keep you informed with the most up-to-date information throughout the weekend.

As of Friday afternoon, this is where accumulating snowfall appears most likely. Check back later as this map is subject to change.

A more detailed snowfall map will be made by Sunday.