Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Overnight severe risk possible Sunday into Monday

Posted: Feb 24, 2023 / 10:50 AM CST

Updated: Feb 26, 2023 / 03:29 PM CST

A major storm threat is expected across Oklahoma tonight as a cold front approaches. These storms will be moving towards Arkansas overnight, however, they will be slowly losing energy.

Most of Arkansas is not under a risk for severe weather, however, there could be a few strong to severe storms across the northwest part of the state.

The far northwest tip of the state is under a level 3 (enhanced) risk. A level 2 (slight) risk covers areas from Forth Smith to Boone county, with a level 1 (marginal) risk from Mena to Mountain Home.

As these storms move through eastern Oklahoma, they will likely weaken some. But by the time they reach western and northwest Arkansas, they could maintain enough strength to cause some issues.

Storms will likely enter NW Arkansas after midnight. They are expected to weaken as they move across the state, reaching central Arkansas around 3 AM – 5 AM. Showers and storms should clear the state by 8 AM.

Late Sunday evening, strong to severe storms will be making their approach into western Arkansas.

One thing that will work in our favor is lack of instability. While temperatures are expected to be warm in advance of these storms, moisture appears to be lacking. So this will help keep our instability limited.

At the same time, there will be enough wind shear to support damaging winds as these storms quickly move across the northwest part of the state. So we must stay weather-aware during this time frame, especially considering people are less likely to get warnings during the night while they’re sleeping.

Both thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds will be very breezy on Monday morning as the front moves through. Gusts could reach 50 mph. This could cause some sporadic power outages.

For that reason, remember to download the Arkansas Storm Team app and have notifications turned on. If a warning is issued, you want to be within steps of a safe place so you’re not left scrambling at the last minute. Of course, we will have a team on standby ready to walk you through that situation, if it comes to fruition.