Our pattern of wet and stormy weather shows no signs of letting up. This round of heavy rain and thunderstorms that will impact Thursday will bring a risk of flooding and severe weather.

The risk for severe weather is very low. The Storm Prediction Center has southern Arkansas under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for damaging thunderstorms.

In that green-shaded area, there is a low chance that a few of the stronger thunderstorms could produce 1″+ sized hail. There is little to no risk of damaging straight-line winds or tornadoes.

The severe weather risk is not the biggest threat Thursday, the flooding threat is higher. Parts of Arkansas are forecast to see as much as 3″ of rain Thursday morning. Below is a forecast model estimate of how much rain we could see.

Not many people will see any flooding, but if there are multiple thunderstorms that go over the same area flash flooding is possible.

For that reason, the Weather Prediction Center has most of Arkansas under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall means there is a 15% chance of a flash flood within 25 miles of a point. Basically, it means a flash flood is possible anywhere in the green-shaded area, but the risk is very low. Normally for this amount of rain, there wouldn’t be a concern for flash flooding, but we are over 10″ of rain above average this year and that has caused the ground to become completely saturated.

Below is the timing of the rain. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms are indicated by the bright yellow and orange colors.

Like Wednesday, the heaviest rain will fall during the morning with some dry hours in the afternoon.