Another round of severe weather is likely Thursday. Severe weather will be possible during the day, Thursday, but become more likely Thursday night with a higher damaging wind and tornado potential than what the state faced Wednesday. The flooding threat will also increase thanks to repetitive waves of rain.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for central and eastern portions of the state until 8 AM.
Currently, southwest Arkansas is under a level 4 risk, with a level 3 risk covering the rest of the southern and central parts of the state. The rest of the state is covered by a level 2 and 1 risk.
Severe storms will form along and south of a warm front that will meander around the middle part of the state today and tonight. This gives South Arkansas the highest probability of severe weather.
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including 80+ mph wind gusts, baseball-sized hail, tornadoes that could be on the strong side, and flooding.
By 7:00 p.m. severe storms will be possible in West and Southwest Arkansas and start to move into Central Arkansas. North Arkansas will likely be getting some very heavy rain from non-severe thunderstorms.
Around 9:00 p.m. all of North Arkansas will be getting heavy rain and start to see a flooding and flash flooding threat. The southern edge of that North Arkansas rain shield will be in Central Arkansas and pose a tornado and hail threat. Meanwhile, a line of storms will have arrived in West Arkansas that will pose a damaging wind and tornado threat.
The line of storms with the widespread damaging wind and tornado threat will be in Central Arkansas before Midnight and right in the middle part of the state at Midnight. It will continue to march east and likely exit the state around 3:00 a.m.
The cold front will be through most of the state by 6:00 a.m., Friday, and the severe weather threat will be over. However, rain will be possible in Central Arkansas until 9:00 a.m., Friday, and until Noon in North Arkansas.
It will turn windy overnight and through most of Friday. First, the wind will be strong from the southwest before the cold front passes. Then, after the cold front, the wind will be from the northwest.
The wind could be between twenty and thirty mph with gusts over 40 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect Friday from 12:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m.
Flooding and flash flooding will become an increasing concern overnight after multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms. 2-3″ or more of rain will be possible in West, North Central, and North Arkansas. Some places may get more than 4″. So, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch that goes until Noon, Friday.
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