LITTLE ROCK, Ark.- 9 PM Update– This time of year, forecasting a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), can be a bit tricky and this time is no different. On Friday, data suggested that we would be dealing with a thunderstorm complex during the day on Saturday. Due to other factors developing yesterday to our northwest, that feature never materialized and it was noted during our late evening newscast on KARK.
Even then that doesn’t mean we are out of the woods from see a few strong to severe thunderstorms but the threat is conditional for tonight. What does that mean? We once again have some factors that could play out over the state which could help prevent the complex from being able to hold itself together.
While that is a scenario, it is not the only one. There is still a chance we could deal with a cluster of thunderstorms that moves in with severe sections embedded within it.
The main concern will again be wind gusts up to 60 MPH being possible. On the lower end of the threat spectrum will be isolated hail up to 1″ in diameter.
Of course, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to localized flash flooding.
As of 9 PM, thunderstorms have developed over Kansas and Missouri during the early evening hours and are beginning to shift south. If the pattern holds, the activity will continue to slowly work into the state overnight. As we move along into the night, we will lose more heating from the day so thunderstorm intensity should ease up as well.
We will keep you updated with the latest forecast details here. If you’d like to watch the latest forecast video, you can find that HERE.