It will be a warm, muggy, windy, and cloudy afternoon. There is a chance of light rain showers through the middle of the afternoon. Storms are likely tonight. Little Rock will get to 84° this afternoon.
With a chance of strong to severe storms tonight and early Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has forecasted a Moderate-Level 4 risk for severe storms including strong tornadoes in much of North and West Arkansas. Little Rock and much of Central Arkansas has been given an Enhanced-Level 3 risk. The risk decreases into Eastern Arkansas, but that’s only based on the low likelihood the storms will even be there by 7:00 a.m. Thursday. The SPC’s forecasts run from 7 AM – 7 AM. So, if storms do not arrive into East Arkansas by 7 AM, the risk for severe storms will be in the Wednesday forecast.
We expect storms to come in two waves. One this evening from 6 PM to Midnight that will start in Southwest Arkansas and exit out of North or Northeast Arkansas around/by Midnight. This round will have the bigger tornado and large hail threat. The second wave will develop around 3:00 a.m. in West or Northwest Arkansas and roll into Central Arkansas from 4:00 – 7 AM, Wednesday. These storms will largely pose a damaging wind threat. We may be dealing with these storms in East Arkansas into the early afternoon hours Wednesday.